Moalims

For a leader to ensure the country’s progress and meet the aspirations of its people, he has to pursue policies that optimise its potential and enable it to keep pace with the world. This aspect is of crucial significance for Pakistan because it has been in a free fall for several decades and even Third World countries have moved far ahead. In all fairness, however, we have to acknowledge the enormity of problems facing Pakistan today, even if many of them are of its own making or are a consequence of regional conflicts and foreign meddling. In these circumstances, it is important to assess how appropriate and transformational is the vision of the prime minister and how is it likely to play out in the future.

To give the government credit, it has focused on infrastructural development — highways, public transport, trade linkages, energy projects and restructuring of public-sector enterprises. Many of its projects are visible and gradually picking up momentum. The completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, linking Kashgar to Gwadar, is projected to significantly boost investment and growth in the energy sector and in infrastructural projects.

On the security front, there have been significant gains that are apparent in the form of clearing of sanctuaries in Fata, especially in North Waziristan, and the overall reduction in terrorist attacks throughout the country. The security situation in Karachi has also improved although there is no let-up in criminal activity and occasional terrorist attacks also continue.

But the preponderant focus on physical infrastructure by the civilian leadership and on security by the military will not be enough to extricate the country from the present quagmire. There are essential elements, especially education, health, population control, ideological transformation, governance issues and emphasis on rule of law, which are not being given the importance they deserve. One realises that it is not possible for any government to overcome these weaknesses in a brief period but unless the policy framework addresses these issues robustly and sequences their priority, Pakistan will continue to face upheavals to the detriment of its nascent democracy. According to Unesco and World Bank statistics, Pakistan’s literacy rate is about 55 per cent, one of the lowest in the world. Several factors have contributed to the poor state of education. Many politicians have a feudal background and have had very basic education. They feel threatened by an emerging educated class as it would challenge the status quo and establish a merit-based society. This sad state of affairs is particularly relevant to Sindh, Balochistan, southern Punjab and Fata. One reason among many for the neglect in investment in education is that it takes time to produce results whereas the construction of roads and buildings takes less time and these are more visible. Our leaders fail to comprehend the impact of education, which is far-reaching, as we have witnessed in countries like South Korea, Singapore and Thailand. Lack of interest and the low priority accorded to scientific and technical education is another factor that is pulling us down.

A major structural weakness is the bifurcation of national policy between the military and civilian leaderships. For years, defence and security policy and relations with India, Afghanistan and the world powers is heavily influenced by the military. In managing the security of Balochistan, Fata and Karachi, the civilian leadership plays second fiddle. National power is maximised when policies are made holistically and not in parts. Moreover, policies should be in conformity with the aspirations of the masses and not driven by an elitist worldview.

There is no doubt that the politicians have disillusioned people. General Raheel Sharif’s unrelenting fight against terrorism and upright conduct has won the admiration of a broad cross section of society. For politicians, this should serve as a reminder of the mismatch of people’s expectations with their performance. In fairness to the civilian leadership, it has always remained under the fear of military takeovers and are severely inhibited. But it, too, needs to be reminded that democracy is not merely about elections and it should discourage patronage and dynastic politics. Political parties should promote a democratic culture and remain open to accountability. By ceding responsibility of key areas to the military, civilians are undermining their future. To build institutional capacities, they have to take responsibility, not pass it on to other state institutions.

The finance minister and his team have been working hard to stabilise the economy but structural weaknesses need to be addressed seriously. Our rate of economic growth is still hovering around four per cent, much below what is required to reduce poverty and become self-sustaining. The troubling aspect, as experts point out, is that economic stabilisation was achieved by relying heavily on the IMF, commercial loans and foreign aid. Pakistan has also benefited by low oil prices. As is well known, Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 10 per cent, supposedly one of the lowest when compared to global standards. Hopefully, recent efforts of the FBR to expand the tax net and promote a tax culture will start showing results. It is important to realise that an underperforming economy will thwart Pakistan’s potential and compromise our future.

Clearly, Nawaz Sharif has made sincere efforts at improving relations with India and Afghanistan. General Raheel Sharif has relentlessly pursued building confidence and mutual trust with the Afghan leadership. We have partly succeeded in improving relations with Afghanistan, but much depends on how Pakistan is able to influence the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire and seek a political solution. By no means should Pakistan be attracted to use the Taliban as proxies. The best course should be to build a solid, straightforward relationship with the Afghan government and win its confidence. Tensions with India are likely to continue until we are able to neutralise non-state actors. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be more responsive to Nawaz Sharif’s gestures of peace, it would strengthen the latter’s hands to deal firmly with such forces.

Pakistan stands at a crossroads with several national and regional transitions taking place. Only with wider vision and implementation of a well thought-out plan can the country be steered towards peace and progress.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 17th, 2016.